Coin toss exercise

by | Jun 18, 2009

 

This is a variation of “Value Flow” exercise that Sanjeev Augustine did at Scrumgathering 2009 in Orlando. I found this exercise very useful to demonstrate the benefits of prioritization and lower batch sizes. I have facilitated a variation on this exercise with different learning objectives. Below is a detailed description of how I run this exercise.

Time:

15 – 20 minutes

Input:

  • 20 coins of different kinds (1,5,10,25 etc)
  • Secret stash of 20 coins of different kinds (1,5,10,25 etc)
  • Table large enough for 4 persons
  • Stopwatch (1)
  • Participants (5)
  • Facilitator (1)
  • Time keeper (1)
  • Flip Chart or Whiteboard
  • Chart or Whiteboard markers

Setup:

  • Create a table as shown below on a flip chart or White Board
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
All Coins
1st Coin
Total Value
  • Participant roles
    • Delivery Team member (4)
    • CEO/Portfolio Manager/Product Owner (1)

Exercise Steps:

Round 1: Batch Size ALL

1.       Ensure all team members can flip or toss a coin.

Start Timer

2.       The first delivery team member flips a coin until it turns heads. Repeats this step for all the 20-25 coins.

3.       Only after the first person is done with all the coins, the second delivery person works on the first coin in the batch until (s)he is done is with all the coins.

4.       The third person picks up the entire batch and then the fourth.

5.       Time keeper records the time taken for the first coin to be flipped to heads by the last team member.

Record Total Time on Chart (Row 1st Coin)

6.       Time keeper records the time taken for all the coins to be flipped to heads by the last team member.

Record Total Time on Chart (Row all Coins)

7.       CEO/Product Owner calculates the sum total of monetary value represented by the coins.

Facilitator sets up context that the organization is facing stiff competition and they have to deliver much faster that they did in Round 1.

Round 2: Improve Time to Market!

1.       Facilitator removes the restriction that one person has to complete all the coins before the next person can pick any of the coins. Team members do have to follow the sequence of processing through team members.

2.       Facilitator asks for the delivery team to do a quick 2 minute retrospective on Round 1and plan for the how they will approach the same problem without the restriction of flipping all coins before passing to next step.

3.       Facilitator kicks off round 2, at the end of time box. Delivery team members may ask for more time for retrospective, but it’s important that facilitator holds the 2 minute time box sacred.

Start Timer

4.       Delivery team begins flipping coins

5.        Time keeper records the time taken for the first coin to be flipped appropriately by the last team member.

Record Total Time on Chart (Row 1st Coin)

6.       Time keeper records the time taken for all the coins to be flipped appropriately by the last team member.

Record Total Time on Chart (Row all Coins)

7.       CEO/Product Owner calculates the sum total of monetary value represented by the coins.

Facilitator sets up the context, that although the time to market was okay, competitors have gained parity and the organization has to focus on delivering higher customer value. They need to improve on that!

Round 3:  Competitive Threat!;Prioritize and fix release date

1.       Facilitator asks for the delivery team to do a quick 2 minute retrospective on Round 2 and plan for the how they will approach the problem this time.

2.       While the team is doing a retrospective, facilitator asks the CEO/Product Owner to prioritize coins based on their monetary value.

3.       Facilitator declares a time box for round 3. This time box should be the lesser of 4 minutes or the time taken to flip all coins by everyone in Round 2.

4.       Delivery team begins flipping coins.

5.       When the first dime comes off the line, tell the team “customer feedback, dimes have no value”

6.       Facilitator hands secret stash, another random collection, of coins to the CEO/Product owner.

7.       CEO/Product owner can reprioritize the new collection with other coins that have not yet been picked up by the first person.

8.       At the end of declared time box, time keeper declares time. Out.

9.       CEO/Product Owner calculates the sum total of monetary value represented by the coins.

Debrief:

Facilitator debriefs participants and other witnesses on the exercise. This will vary significantly depending on people’s experiences. The intention of the three rounds is thus:

Round 1, sets up the organization to deliver fixed value (total monetary value of coins). Team members usually are working at a frantic pace to get most through put with the CEO/Product owner cheering them on.

Round2, is still about delivering fixed value however after the retrospective team members intuitively reduce the batch size. So instead of passing 20 coins at a time, they hand off 2 to 3 coins at a time to the next person in line. I have observed that as compared to round 1, the team takes much lesser time to deliver on the same. Improved time to market!

Round 3, is delivering about maximum value with in fixed time box. This is significantly different than Round 1 and Round 2 since in this case the product ship date is fixed. Somewhere in round 3 by injecting customer feedback that “all dimes are useless”, induces additional uncertainity since no one can predict customer behavior/trend.  At the end of round 3 time box, team often delivers higher value than round 2 and round 1 even with the uncertainity induced through customer feedback.  Debrief points are around product owner prioritization, injection of customer feedback and fixed release dates.

The coins in this exercise may represent features or projects within a portfolio. It is very hard to kill projects/features even after we know that they are not worth the effort. There is tremendous value in killing low value high cost projects. Have fun! I’d appreciate if you provide feedback  or tell me how it went for your team.

4 Comments

  1. Hiren Doshi

    Hi Dhaval,

    Thanks for sharing this game. I am planning to use this game in my upcoming session and I will let you know how it goes. BTW, for reference do you have any numbers handy that you can share — eg. how long did it take complete each round and lead time between first round, second round and third round.

    In your case, did the time tracker track the time for only first coin and the last coin or for all 25 coins?

    Thanks for sharing this game.

    Regards,
    -Hiren

    Reply
    • Dhaval Panchal

      Hiren ~ Typically this exercise takes 30 mins total with about 15-20 mins of exercise and remaining time for follow up. keeping track of total time for all individual coins separately is not required. Timer starts the stopwatch when the exercise starts with the first team member flipping a coin. The total time taken until the 1st coin is flipped by the last team member is what we are calculating. And then we can calculating the total time taken for all the coins.

      Reply
  2. Dhaval Panchal

    Hi CSM,

    It is best when you don’t hide behind a pseudo name. I do not allow comments from people who are hide behind a curtain of anonymous name such as “wanna be CSM”.

    Reveal yourself, and I will allow your comment, no matter how negative – on my blog. And spend the effort to engage in a meaningful dialog.

    Best,
    Dhaval

    Reply
  3. Melvin goldstein

    If you understand Entropy (one of Physics Foibles) you can understand coin flips.

    Reply

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